Florida Results
January 29, 2008 — wickleOn New Year’s Day, I was listening to the Capitol Steps, and their song “McCain’s Campaign Is Plainly In the Drain” (to the tune of “The Rain in Spain Stays Mainly in the Plain” from “My Fair Lady”).
I think they might have been a bit premature in that assessment.
I had previously called for a McCain win, but narrowly. With 74% reporting, that lead is 5 points — McCain has 36% to Romney’s 31%. That exceeds the spread I had predicted, if the numbers stay that way.
I didn’t really predict a number for Rudy Giuliani, but he appears to be doing worse than I’d expected — currently showing 15%. I’m not one of those people who wants to dismiss candidates prematurely, but I would argue that Giuliani’s “wait for Florida” strategy didn’t work so well. He’s put all of his time and effort into Florida, and the best he could manage is a very distant third … and narrowly edging out Huckabee.
Mike Huckabee … what can I say? I figured he’d be in fourth. He appears to be. (I’d love to see him pass Giuliani as those last 25% come in …) This does make Super Tuesday all the more important for us.
And that brings us to Ron Paul. I had said that I expected him to finish in the single-digits, but not this low. 3% is … well, … not a lot.
No one argues that Romney or McCain should be pulling out anymore. They’re secure for now.
Rudy Giuliani has withdrawn, and for good reason. The major-media anointing that Mayor Giuliani enjoyed for so long was clearly erroneous. Of course, it looks like he’s going to endorse John McCain. So, that would be the Reaganesque (according to Sean Hannity) Rudy Giuliani endorsing the liberal John McCain. I’m wondering when normal people are going to start noticing that these talkers don’t know what they’re talking about.
People are writing off Mike Huckabee, but I would still argue that there’s no good reason to do so. Some of the upcoming states should be good for Gov. Huckabee. I would not write him off yet.
I still have nothing in particular to say about Ron Paul. He tried, but the truth is that he isn’t going to be the Republican nominee.
The Maine caucuses are this weekend, and then we’re up to Super Tuesday. We’ll see how it goes …
January 30, 2008 at 11:20 am
Do you have any opinion that Huckabee is little more than a spoiler who is serving McCain ?
January 30, 2008 at 11:26 am
No … if I wanted to play that game, then I’d accuse Thompson of spoiling SC for McCain by sucking away the votes from Huckabee.
These guys are legitimate candidates running for President, not to play tactical games that make pundits happy.
January 30, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Ok so you have an opinion and it speaks to the consistency in your character. I respect that. The truth of elections in my eyes though is above simple punditry. Paul,Rudy (in Fl),Thompson (SC) did indeed draw votes away and damage someone. It also damages the two party system we’re currently stuck with in that the “winner” is a winner with less than 40 % of the vote. I’m having Perot flashbacks man.
January 30, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Even if Huckabee were draining votes from Romney in service of McCain, so what? He has every right to run as good a campaign as he can and his supporters have every right to have their voices heard.
January 30, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Maybe Romney’s been sucking votes away from Mike Huckabee ever since Iowa.
If not for Romney, maybe Huckabee or Thompson would have run away with the nomination.
What’s the point in crying about it now? Pistolpete is right … no one should have to withdraw just because someone else says so. If Ron Paul wants to keep running, then he should. Even if I think he doesn’t stand a chance. He has contributors, and he has people who want to vote for him.
I might add, I’m all for breaking the 2-party system. Maybe if the GOP nominates someone unacceptable, then the long-neglected “third parties” will get noticed.
January 30, 2008 at 11:20 pm
I really detest when people start calling someone a “spoiler”, or mention “taking votes away” or the ol” “throwing your vote away”.
No one has a right to anyone else’s vote and then only way you can throw your vote away is by NOT voting on who you think is best.
So it is suddenly a problem that people are voting for say Huckabee becuase he is the one they support the most then Romney??? It is suddenly a spoiler? I just donlt get the logic behind that.
January 31, 2008 at 8:03 am
You know, if it wasn’t for Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Sam Brownback, Alan Keyes, and John McCain sucking all the votes away, John Cox would have wrapped up the GOP nomination!
January 31, 2008 at 12:43 pm
LOL! So true! They all stole it from Cox…