I promised a post about Super Tuesday yesterday, and didn’t get it finished … frankly, between a world-record-breaking-sloppy diaper and the resulting laundry, I had other things to do. (There’s a joke here about choosing dirty diapers over politics … I’m not sure what it is. Feel free to make suggestions in the Comments, but remember my prudery.)
As I said in my Florida post, I don’t think that Mayor Giuliani will be a major factor by then. I expect the slow death of his campaign to escalate after his third-place finish in Florida, which is vital to his campaign. Everything I say after this is predicated on that.
I’m also going to say a lot less than I was writing yesterday.
I realize that I’ve previously said that I think Ron Paul is winning nothing … with a weak showing in NH, I figured he was done. That didn’t stop him from a second-place finish in the Louisiana caucus, so I have to rethink that. As frequent commenter Tam has noted, he has a good shot at Alaska. It’s the state with as strong a Libertarian reputation as NH. Maybe more, at this point. Another commenter predicts a win in West Virginia. I don’t know if I agree, but I’ll say that those are his good shots at wins.
Mike Huckabee will do well in Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia … without looking at any polls for those states, I think that those are his likely wins. I’m not sure about other states.
Mitt Romney will carry Utah, but I can’t say why because that’s off-limits for Huckabee supporters these days. (But has anyone noticed that the “t” in “Utah” looks kind of like a floating cross? I wonder what that means!) He’ll also probably carry Massachusetts, since it’s a primary. (Most people accept that he wasn’t going to win if he’d gone for re-election.)
I expect the West to be good to Mike Huckabee, as well. Arizona, Colorado, and such might be wins, or at least strong finishes.
I don’t see any of the three candidates (Romney, McCain, Huckabee) being eliminated on Super Tuesday. If Giuliani held on that long, he’ll admit that he’s out when he doesn’t even carry New York. Even if he wins in West Virginia and Alaska, I don’t see Ron Paul “bouncing” enough to be a winner for the primary — but I do see him making enough of a splash to lead the “R3VO1ution” (the letters “EVOL” are supposed to be written backward, so that you’ve got “LOVE” in the middle of “REVOLUTION”) quite apart from a Presidential run. I think that he’ll stay in through the convention … and use his delegates and support level to negotiate concessions … or to play Pied Piper (who, remember, led the children away not because he was evil but because the villagers were corrupt).
I’ll write more about that later, but I think that the biggest outcome of the 2008 Presidential nomination race will be the recognition that the traditional Republican coalition is made up of people who don’t like each other — Christian conservatives really are held in contempt by the supposedly-more-sophisticated economic conservatives (who deride us for “denying” evolution … that was a mistake). For our part, most Christians don’t really like social Darwinism or casual disregard for enemies.
Hardcore Federalists loathe just about all of us as phony conservatives.
Ah, well … I might change my mind completely about Super Tuesday as we get closer. I think we’re headed to a brokered convention, and we’re headed toward a strengthened “third party” on the Right. Expect the Constitution Party to do well, or maybe the Libertarian.
The future is interesting for the Republican party, and what it means for the general election is impossible to tell.
January 25, 2008 at 11:39 am
I have been saying for a couple of months that there will be a brokered convention. I would love to be wrong as I don’t trust the Republican party at a brokered convention. I just don’t see how anyone gets enough delegates unless it is a 2 man race before Super Tuesday.
As to your predictions. . .
I think you are right on everything except I think that Arizona will go to McCain. It is his home state after all.
January 25, 2008 at 11:44 am
Oops … yeah, that is worth considering.
I meant to list Arizona as a strong finish, but I didn’t word it well … especially since I do consider Colorado at least a possible win and have it in the same sentence.
I could edit, but I won’t. I’ll just let it ride.
January 27, 2008 at 11:28 am
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January 27, 2008 at 4:24 pm
I still have hope, even if the media seem to be treating Mike like he isn’t even there. They are telling us that it is a two man race. I still believe that it is a “three” man race, McCain, Romney and Mike. I am a delegate to my county convention in Nevada in March. Mike is still “my” man, and I will take him to the convention with me. I will say, that no matter what, I will support the republican nominee, no matter whom that may be.
January 27, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Well, Vicki, I thank you for serving as a delegate. I agree with you, I also still have hope for the primary. I think that Super Tuesday will be good to Gov. Huckabee, and we’ll see what happens.