A realistic look at Florida

Florida’s upcoming primary is a very important one in the Republican race. There is simply no way around that … there is a huge number of delegates up for grabs, in a winner-take-all situation. This is also the first major “closed” primary. That means that there will be no independents or Democrats voting in the race (in NH, for example, Undeclared voters may vote in either primary … in Michigan, voters could vote in either primary regardless of registration).

This primary is also made especially important because of Rudy Giuliani’s unorthodox strategy, which had him abandoning the early states for larger, more delegate-rich (and less conservative) states. He, therefore, is a larger factor now than he has been in previous states.

In the delegate race, this is a big deal — the winner in Florida will almost certainly pull ahead in the delegate race. Unlike other states, where the winner might get the same delegates as a candidate who finishes in a close second, the winner in Florida gets them all. All 57 of them. Romney, the current leader in GOP delegates, has 59 delegates. If Rudy Giuliani, who currently has only 1 delegate, wins that 57, he suddenly comes to a very close second, from his current position behind Ron Paul and the withdrawn Fred Thompson (tied, I think, with withdrawn Duncan Hunter, who picked up a delegate in Wyoming).

So, what does all of this mean?

For Rudy Giuliani, his campaign might well live or die by his results in Florida. He staked everything on a big win there, and he has no momentum from his previous abysmal finishes. If he wins, then he looks like his strategy had merit, he’s doing well in delegates, and he’s in the race. More importantly, he makes news for this strategy, and might have momentum to carry into other states.

If he loses, I think he’s done. He might hang on for Super Tuesday, but I don’t think that he’s a factor at all if he fails to win in Florida after spending so much time there.

My prediction? Mayor Giuliani will be third in Florida, but I don’t think that he’ll bow out until after Super Tuesday. But I don’t expect him to win anything then, either. He’s already trailing in Real Clear Politics polls in even New York. A Florida win might give him enough of a “bounce” to win somewhere else, but anything less probably renders him irrelevant for the rest of the nomination run.

Mitt Romney is too far ahead in delegates right now, and has too much momentum, to be shut off by a loss in Florida. It will hurt him, but he’s got enough wins and is doing well enough that I don’t think he’s doomed unless the polls are disastrously wrong and he’s crushed in Florida. Even that, though, he can probably recover.

I don’t expect him to be crushed. I expect him to take second place. Probably a close second (down by 2-3 percentage points).

John McCain is my prediction to win Florida. This will put him in the lead in the delegate race and make people start questioning the wisdom of pundits who claim that he isn’t really a Republican … since he won in a closed primary.

A loss in Florida will hurt greatly, but will probably not crush him unless it’s a disaster. McCain won South Carolina and New Hampshire, though, which show him as a viable candidate even with a second, and maybe third, place finish. Anything lower than that (which won’t happen) could put the brakes on the momentum.

Mike Huckabee’s campaign has chosen largely to focus its resources on other states where we have more chance to win. This hurts, frankly. We won in Iowa, and had a close second in South Carolina. We need to win something soon, but Florida isn’t going to be it. A fourth place finish out of five serious candidates is going to hurt badly.

On the other hand, the withdrawal of Fred Thompson might bring more of the social conservatives around, and the Duncan Hunter endorsement should help with immigration voters who are finally taking a look at Gov. Huckabee’s real proposals.

decent fourth would be good. I think that the expectation here is low  enough that we won’t be too badly broken by the weak showing … as long as Super Tuesday is good to us.

Ron Paul doesn’t have the appeal to Floridians that he had in New Hampshire, Iowa, or Nevada. I expect a single-digit finish here for a fairly-distant fifth place. This won’t end the campaign, because I don’t think that Rep. Paul has any intention of withdrawing before the convention. To have any kind of a realistic shot at the nomination, though, he will need to win something soon. To the Ron Paul supporters, I’m sorry … I don’t think that he will be winning anything.
In summary … I think that we will finally be rid of the Giuliani campaign after Florida, at least in any meaningful sense. I expect that John McCain will secure his front-runner status, leaving Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee to work for Super Tuesday.

Florida will narrow the field to the three candidates who have already won — Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and John McCain — as we go into Super Tuesday. I’ll write my Super Tuesday preliminary predictions tomorrow.

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